11.16.05
Timing is everything
I was a panelist for a conference last week and one of the questions was on whether some of the leading technologies such as WiMax and IP Broadcast is going to take off. My comment to that was it all depends on timing and location. Any significant change using technology, especially infrastructure deployment goes through a hype curve and takes time to catch on.
When I was in Cisco and first looked at VoIP in 1999, it was a dream and most of the technologies hold promise but none of them is scalable. No one was using IP Phone, and a lot of people don’t even believe it could be done and be reliable. Cisco was the first large communication company that believed in the vision and bought a bunch of startups to put that dream together. But it was a hard sell to customers and took about 4 years before it becomes somewhat a mainstream technology and generates profit. Same thing in web services deployment in Enterprise. When I first looked at web service related investment in 2000, a lot of people thought it was catching up quickly and CIOs were just waiting to jump into SOA. Guess what, it again took about 4 years before we see real adoption. Consumer adoption is generally faster, but in my mind, everything goes through an adoption curve from hype to reality and It is always great to sell your company when it is in hype. It also depends on location. Advanced technology like WiMax and IP broadcast are deployed much faster in Asia than US since the infrastructure in Asia has and can jump a generation of technology. I still see hunger for latest and coolest technology and willingness to try anything that provides a competitive edge in Asia. I seldom see the sparks in the US anymore, at least the cost of selling is much higher.
Boundaryfree » Does anyone cares about 2.0? said,
October 2, 2006 at 3:31 am
[…] Om did a good write-up called “Do they know 2.0” that brings up an excellent realty check on how indifferent people are outside the technology industry on these “web 2.0″ buzz. I shared the same view, actually, I put down a quick blog on a similar topic from my perspective a while back. A technology does not change people’s life, it takes a while for it to mature, become a product and weave into people’s daily life. Even when the benefit is evident, it still takes a long time for people to adopt and really use it. For an entrepreneur, this sets the realty on when to get external funding because you really need the customer’s dollars to come in, not just buzz from blogs (see my other post on when does it make sense to get external funding). I like the analogy from a booked called “Accidental empire”. Venture is like surfing. If you are too early, there is no wave. If you are too late, the wave is already close to shore and dying down. The right wave, the right timing, the right equipment, the right people, that makes a good surf. Most importantly, the luck. That’s why it is hard to find a lot of companies like google. Best luck to everyone who is dare to dream about big dreams and works hard towards it Share and Enjoy:These icons link to social bookmarking sites where readers can share and discover new web pages. […]