06.05.08

Global Inflation and Opporunity

Posted in Technology Ventures, Random thoughts, Globalization at 10:10 pm by Ray Wu

Fed Chief Ben Bernanke talks about his worry on inflation in the last 2 days. The problem is that Fed can no longer control the pricing alone in this globally integrated market. Since 70% of US GDP comes from service sector, it is almost impossible to see how heavy inflationary environment in China and India is not going to have a significant impact on US. We have seen heavy demand on not only industrial commodities such as oil and gas, but also agricultural commodities like rice and pork. As a matter of fact, Costco is limiting number of bag of rice a person can purchase at one visit. As more of more citizens in the developing countries become richer, they will also seek better life that most Americans get used to: better and more food, a car, a house etc. Imagine several billion of people flood to this new demand curve and its impact on the overall resources? We as a human race will come up solutions to deal with this resource demand/supply gap overtime, but the shock is unavoidable. It is actually good for the digital economy because digital economy is based on bountifulness of unlimited supply (ie. 1M download of a software is not going to be add noticeable cost than a single copy of download). While physical economy gets more constrained, the digital economy would be in favor. For example, as airline ticket goes up, people would use virtual meeting more than flying to meet in person. I see a lot of opportunities for us in the valley to benefit from this trend.

06.03.08

Donate to China earthquake

Posted in Random thoughts, Globalization at 7:13 am by Ray Wu

I have always been an advocate of donation efficiency. It took me a while to find a few donation services that pass 100% of the donation back to China. The one I decided in the end is Silicon Valley Tsinghua Network that is run by about 15 volunteers who are helping all donation and website details. So I donated a few thousand bucks for this effort and hope you can join me to help relieve the suffering just a little. 60K+ death and counting, what a tragedy! There is an incidence where a school building collapsed and every student died. Thinking of this makes my heart ache as I know how sad it is to lose a loved one, especially a child.

05.30.08

Back to root

Posted in Technology Ventures, Globalization at 6:21 am by Ray Wu

After going back to China almost every month this year, I start to really appreciate my root a lot. Since I left China in 1986, there are tremendous amount of changes in that country every year. But it is only until recent few years I start to see not only infrastructure upgrade, but also human capital upgrade. For the first time, I see people make it big not because they have connections and know how to wine and dine, but because they work hard. I see government officials clearly and openly outline their 5 year plan and push hard to make change happen. I see construction and booming everywhere. The latest stats came out last month that consumer spending is growing 22% Y/Y in April 2008. As a matter of fact, China is the third-biggest consumer of luxury goods in 2005 that accounts for 12 percent of sales worldwide. The analysts expect China to be second-largest purchaser of luxury goods by 2015 and account for 29 percent of the world’s luxury sales. According to Goldman Sachs, China GDP will bypass US by 2040, but that’s assuming Chinese currency would stay flat. With current currency appreciation rate, I expect China GDP to pass US within the next 15 years. This is a figure business week mentioned in one of its articles a few weeks ago. From a technology perspective, China is the largest Internet countries in the world with 225M users and counting, 53% Y/Y growth in 2007. It is also the largest Cell Phone Market with 400M cell phone users vs 202M in the US at the end of 2007. Consider China cell phone penetration rate is only at 30+% vs 70% in the US, you can see why all the handset manufactures treat China as the most strategic target. So many possibilities and so little time…

11.21.06

Commoditization in voice mail

Posted in Technology Ventures, Globalization at 9:26 am by Ray Wu

It used to take $30 a month to get a local voice mailbox that linked with your e-mail account, then the price got slash to around $10 and stayed there for a while,. Last year, eVoice started to provide the local voicemail service for $4.99 per month, now NetZero just pushed out a service called PrivatePhone that provides a Free local phone number and voicemail services. What a deal! A free local number where people can reach you and leave a voicemail that is then delivered to your e-mail quickly as a wave file. I can see many uses for this services such as ebay sellers who don’t want to give out their numbers directly to buyers, people who is looking for online date and don’t want to share their private number initially, or an international busiess that wants to look like a US business. I think technology has really changed the landscape of the traditional telecommunication industry. After Skype, nothings looks the same anymore….

10.30.06

Communication effectiveness

Posted in Random thoughts, Globalization at 9:14 pm by Ray Wu

From interviews of a job I posted recently, a consistent feedback on Asian candidates is that they are quiet, and somehow lack of “executive” presence and communication effectiveness. These are top-notch candidates from major VC funds or private equities who have been educated and worked in the US for many years. In my mind, they are very talented, well versed in analytical and business skills, as well as English language. When I talked to the candidates, I found their communication style to be on par with what I expected. So it is somewhat enlightening and intriguing to discover the feedback from my American colleagues. This is not the first time I get these feedback. Can this be more of a culture norm vs the true communication effectiveness?

In an Asian culture, it is considered as a great virtue to be modest and respect for others. As such, one tends to less commanding and pay more attention to others’ position. “Pushing back” or challenging senior leaders that represents “critical thinking” skills or “leadership” in the US is frown upon by their peers in Asia. Many Asian leaders are quieter and less confrontational vs their US counterparts. As such, Asian leaders tend to be considered to have less leadership skills and effectiveness. This can be one of many reasons why there are disproportional small number of Chinese/Korean/Japanese leaders in the top US corporations.

This communication and cultural bias is also true when US leaders deal with Asian counterparts. I heard many feedback from my Asian friends on US business leaders conducting business in North Asia to be boastful and ego-centric. What shows in US as “leadership” and “executive presence” tend to be classified as dominating and arrogant by Asian.

In a global economy where people are building business based on relationship and trust, lack of understanding and assume the culture norm equivalency can become a major barrier to foster a true multicultural leadership team that can react and perform well on a global basis.

10.24.06

Retail in China

Posted in Globalization at 5:29 pm by Ray Wu

Wal-Mart is teaming up with GE and China’s Shenzhen Development Bank to launch a credit card in China. The card is dual-currency and can be used inside China or abroad. Even though less than 5 percent of China’s population has a credit card today, this does represent a trillion dollar market in the coming decade, and one of the most enticing opportunities for banks and alike. By given additional financing power to Chinese consumers, Wal-Mart can help millions of affluent Chinese middle class to shop better in its stores and build a brand recognition and trust associated with a financial institution. Accord to Wal-Mart, it is on track to have 77 stores in China by the end of this fiscal year on January 31.

What else can credit card buy? Maybe KFC’s chicken? According to Yum Brands, KFC’s parent, there are 1,700 KFCs spread across 400 cities in China. Yum’s operating profit in China jumped 26% to $105 million on a $445 million in sales, compare to the US number, where Yum achieved less than 1% operating profit gain with 7% decline in sales. Wonder what would happen if KFC also offer credit card in China? Hmmm, Finger-Lickin’ Good card…

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